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O n A u g u s t 3 , 2 0 1 5 , P r e s i d e n t O b a m a a n d t h e E n v i r o n m e n t a l P r o t e c t i o n A g e n c y ( E P A ) r e l e a s e d a n e w s e t o f f i n a l r e g u l a t i o n s a i m e d a t r e d u c i n g c a r b o n o u t p u t f r o m p o w e r p l a n t s . T h e s w e e p i n g n e w C l e a n P o w e r P l a n ( C P P ) s e t s l i m i t s o n c a r b o n o u t p u t f r o m c o a l a n d n a t u r a l g a s - f i r e d p o w e r p l a n t s w h i l e m a n d a t i n g n e w t a r g e t s f o r r e n e w a b l e s a s a p o r t i o n o f t h e e n e r g y m i x . T h e p l a n a i m s t o c u t c a r b o n o u t p u t f r o m p o w e r p l a n t s b y 3 2 p e r c e n t f r o m 2 0 0 5 l e v e l s b y 2 0 3 0 a n u n p r e c e d e n t e d m o v e s i n c e u n t i l n o w t h e r e h a s b e e n n o f e d e r a l r e g u l a t i o n o n t h e c a r b o n o u t p u t f r o m e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
U n s u r p r i s i n g l y , t h e r e l e a s e o f C P P h a s g e n e r a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r o v e r s y . S t a t e s , i n d u s t r y a n d t r a d e g r o u p s a r e a l l p r e p a r i n g t o l a u n c h i n i t i a t i v e s t o e i t h e r a t t a c k o r s u p p o r t t h e p l a n . W i t h s o m u c h i n t e r e s t i n s h a p i n g t h e i m p a c t o f t h e C P P , i t i s c r u c i a l f o r e n e r g y o r g a n i z a t i o n s t o l o o k a t w h a t e f f o r t s a r e u n d e r w a y a n d w h a t o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h o s e e f f o r t s p r o v i d e f o r i n t e r e s t e d p a r t i e s t o a f f e c t C P P o u t c o m e s .
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T h e l a n g u a g e o f t h e C P P r e q u i r e s s t a t e s t o s u b m i t a n i m p l e m e n t a t i o n p l a n b y D e c e m b e r 6 , 2 0 1 6 , t o t h e E P A a s a r o a d m a p f o r h o w t h e y i n t e n d t o r e a c h t h e i r e m i s s i o n s g o a l s . B y t h a t d e a d l i n e , e i t h e r a C P P S t a t e I m p l e m e n t a t i o n P l a n ( S I P ) m u s t b e s u b m i t t e d f o r a p p r o v a l , o r a d r a f t w i t h a r e q u e s t f o r a n e x t e n s i o n m u s t b e s u b m i t t e d . I n s u b m i t t i n g a d r a f t , s t a t e s a r e n o t d e l a y i n g t h e t i m e l i n e o f t h e i r e v e n t u a l t a r g e t , b u t i n s t e a d o n l y t h e d e a d l i n e f o r t h e c o m p l i a n c e . F a i l u r e t o p r o d u c e a S I P w i l l t r i g g e r a F e d e r a l I m p l e m e n t a t i o n P l a n ( F I P ) t o b e a p p l i e d t o s t a t e s t h a t a r e t a r d y o r r e s i s t a n t .
D e s p i t e t h e F I P t h r e a t , s t a t e s l i k e O k l a h o m a a n d I n d i a n a h a v e v o w e d n o t t o s u b m i t a C P P S I P , o r r e q u e s t f o r e x t e n s i o n , b y t h e d e a d l i n e . T w e n t y - t w o o t h e r s t a t e s a r e p r e p a r i n g f o r l e g a l a c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e E P A a n d O b a m a a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a s w e l l , a r g u i n g t h a t E P A l a c k s t h e a u t h o r i t y t o r e g u l a t e t h e i r p o w e r m i x i n t h i s w a y . S t a t e s s u c h a s M a s s a c h u s e t t s a n d N e w Y o r k h a v e v o w e d t o d e f e n d t h e E P A b y j o i n i n g i n t h e l i t i g a t i o n o n b e h a l f o f t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , a l o n g w i t h t h e m a j o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s . S o m e i n p r i v a t e i n d u s t r y , a n d t h e t r a d e g r o u p s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e m , a r e a l s o p r e p a r i n g f o r a l e g a l b a t t l e t o c h a l l e n g e t h e C P P .
A n o t h e r c o m p l i c a t i n g f a c t o r a t t h e s t a t e l e v e l w i l l b e t h e r e a c t i o n o f s t a t e u t i l i t y c o m m i s s i o n s , w h i c h w i l l b e h e a v i l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f s t a t e p l a n s . T h e C P P w i l l r e q u i r e e a c h s t a t e t o r e - e x a m i n e i t s e n e r g y f u e l m i x , a n d m a n y s t a t e s c o m p l a i n t h a t E P A i s p r e e m p t i n g t h e f u e l m i x d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s .
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W h i l e s t a t e s s u e o v e r E P A a u t h o r i t y , s o m e i n i n d u s t r y w i l l b e l o o k i n g f o r a s t a y o n t h e r e g u l a t i o n , a l l o w i n g t h e m t o a v o i d c o s t l y m o d i f i c a t i o n s a n d c o n t i n u e b u s i n e s s a s u s u a l u n t i l t h e l i t i g a t i o n e f f o r t s c l o s e a n d t h e r u l e i s e i t h e r i m p l e m e n t e d o r r e j e c t e d b y t h e c o u r t s . P r e p a r i n g p l a n t s t o m e e t t h e n e w s t a n d a r d w i l l b e c o s t l y , e v e n b e f o r e p h y s i c a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s a r e m a d e . T h e r e f o r e , a c h i e v i n g a s t a y m a y b e p a r a m o u n t t o t h e f i n a n c i a l h e a l t h o f c e r t a i n c o m p a n i e s r e l y i n g o n f o s s i l f u e l s i n o r d e r t o a v o i d s p e n d i n g m o n e y o n i m p l e m e n t i n g a p l a n t h a t m a y u l t i m a t e l y b e d i s m a n t l e d t h r o u g h l i t i g a t i o n .
R e c e n t l y , t h e r e h a s b e e n s o m e p r e c e d e n t t h a t m a y a s s i s t t h e i r e f f o r t s . J u s t a f e w m o n t h s a g o , t h e S u p r e m e C o u r t r u l e d a g a i n s t t h e E P A o n i t s M e r c u r y A i r T o x i c s S t a n d a r d . S i d i n g w i t h i n d u s t r y , t h e C o u r t r e j e c t e d E P A s r u l e o n t h e b a s i s t h a t i t d i d n o t a d d r e s s a C l e a n A i r A c t r e q u i r e m e n t t o a s s e s s t h e f i n a n c i a l i m p a c t i t w o u l d h a v e o n t h e p l a n t s i t s e e k s t o r e g u l a t e . W h i l e t h e c o u r t d i d n t r e j e c t t h e r u l e o u t r i g h t , i t r e m a n d e d t h e m a t t e r t o a l o w e r c o u r t f o r r e h e a r i n g o n t h e f i n a n c i a l i m p a c t t o d e t e r m i n e n e x t s t e p s . T h e c a s e i s s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h a t i t c o n t i n u e s t h e t r e n d i n r e c e n t C l e a n A i r A c t c a s e s t o s t e p a w a y f r o m t h e C o u r t s h i s t o r i c C h e v r o n d e f e r e n c e t o E P A i n i t s r u l e m a k i n g . T h i s c a s e w i l l b e c i t e d b y t h o s e c o m p a n i e s s e e k i n g a s t a y o n t h e C P P s i n c e b y t h e t i m e t h e S u p r e m e C o u r t r e n d e r e d t h e i r d e c i s i o n , m o s t u t i l i t i e s h a d a l r e a d y c o m p l i e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e H o u s e o f R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s h a s p a s s e d l e g i s l a t i o n t h a t w o u l d g r a n t i n d u s t r y p r o t e c t i o n f r o m c o m p l i a n c e u n t i l t h e l e g a l c h a l l e n g e s t o t h e C P P h a v e r u n t h e i r c o u r s e .
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T h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a R e n e w a b l e P o w e r S t a n d a r d ( R P S ) i s o n e o f t h e m o r e i n t r i g u i n g a s p e c t s o f t h e C l e a n P o w e r P l a n . W i t h t h e R P S i n p l a c e , s o l a r a n d w i n d t e c h n o l o g y h a v e b e e n m a n d a t e d t o m a k e u p a s p e c i f i c p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e n a t i o n a l e n e r g y m i x . T h i s r e p r e s e n t s a n e w p a r a d i g m f o r r e n e w a b l e s a s t h e t e c h n o l o g y m a t u r e s i n t o a m o r e d e p e n d a b l e s o u r c e o f p o w e r . U n t i l n o w , w i n d a n d s o l a r h a v e b e e n i n c e n t i v i z e d b y t a x c r e d i t s t o s p u r i n v e s t m e n t n o w t h e y w i l l n e e d t o b e a d d e d t o t h e m i x n o m a t t e r w h a t .
T h i s r a i s e s a n i n t e r e s t i n g q u e s t i o n a b o u t t h e f u t u r e o f t h e t a x i n c e n t i v e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y s o u r c e s : w i l l C o n g r e s s m a i n t a i n i t s a p p e t i t e f o r t a x c r e d i t s f o r a t e c h n o l o g y t h a t i s n o w m a n d a t e d ? I n t h e p a s t , l e g i s l a t o r s h a v e t u r n e d a w a y f r o m p r o v i d i n g i n c e n t i v e s o n c e a m a n d a t e h a s b e e n p u t i n p l a c e . F o r e x a m p l e , i n 2 0 1 2 t h e S e n a t e d i d a w a y w i t h t h e v o l u m e t r i c e t h a n o l e x c i s e t a x c r e d i t f o r e t h a n o l p r o d u c e r s , a r g u i n g t h a t a f t e r 3 0 y e a r s o f s u b s i d y a n d a f e d e r a l r e q u i r e m e n t t h a t g a s o l i n e i s b l e n d e d w i t h a t l e a s t 1 0 p e r c e n t e t h a n o l , t h e s u b s i d y w a s n o l o n g e r e s s e n t i a l t o t h e p r o s p e r i t y o f t h e i n d u s t r y .
A t t h e e n d o f t h i s y e a r , p r o d u c t i o n t a x c r e d i t s f o r w i n d a n d s o l a r w i l l e x p i r e u n l e s s t h e y a r e e x t e n d e d b y C o n g r e s s . R e q u i r i n g s t a t e s t o m e e t a c e r t a i n t h r e s h o l d f o r r e n e w a b l e u s e c o u l d p i q u e t h e i n t e r e s t o f a n t i - s u b s i d y l e g i s l a t o r s w h o w i l l a r g u e t h a t a t a x b r e a k i s n o l o n g e r n e c e s s a r y t o e n c o u r a g e i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e s . H o w C o n g r e s s w i l l a c t o n t h e s e t a x e s i s a n y t h i n g b u t c e r t a i n , b u t i t i s w o r t h n o t i n g t h a t l e g i s l a t o r s h a v e b e e n s k e p t i c a l o f r e d u n d a n c i e s i n p r o g r a m s l i k e t h i s i n t h e p a s t . T h i s c o u l d b e a g a m e c h a n g e r f o r t h e r e n e w a b l e s i n d u s t r y a s i t s h i f t s f r o m W a l l S t r e e t i n v e s t m e n t t o u t i l i t y - d r i v e n i n v e s t m e n t . U n d e r t h e C P P , r e n e w a b l e s a r e r e a c h i n g t h e p o i n t o f b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d a m a t u r e a n d p r o v e n t e c h n o l o g y , m u c h l i k e t h e e t h a n o l i n d u s t r y s e v e r a l y e a r s a g o .
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